A new national poll conducted by Harvard’s Institute of Politics (Kennedy School of Government) among America’s 18- to 29- year olds finds more Millennials predict President Barack Obama will lose his bid for re-election.
The result was 36% (negative) as against 30% (positive) votes.
The new survey also shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with the best performance among potential Republican challengers in a general election match-up against President Obama, trailing the President by eleven percentage points (Obama: 37%, Romney: 26%).
“Our new polling data clearly shows Millennials are growing more concerned over the direction of the country and effectiveness of Washington, D.C. to solve problems.” -Trey Grayson Director Harvard Institute of Politics
“While we are more than a year away – it’s important to note that with enthusiasm about politics and Washington down, nearly three-quarters of Millennials seriously concerned about jobs and the economy – and more believing that the President that they helped elect will lose, rather than win re-election – this survey may well serve as an ominous sign for Barack Obama’s 2012 chances and the political engagement of America’s largest generation.” – John Della Volpe Polling Director Harvard Institute of Politics
The web-enabled survey of 2,028 18-29 year-old U.S. citizens with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points (95% confidence level) conducted with research partner Knowledge Networks for the IOP between Nov. 23 and Dec. 3, 2011 finds –
-- Plurality of Millennials predict Obama will lose bid for re-election. Among all 18-29 year-olds, more believe that Barack Obama will lose re-election (36%) than win (30%), with almost a third (32%) not sure - the margin is nearly identical among students enrolled in four-year colleges (37%: lose, 31%: win, 31%: not sure). Among survey respondents who voted for Barack Obama in 2008, less than half (48%) believe he will win re-election at this time (19% say Obama will lose, with 33% undecided). -- Mitt Romney leads among young Republican primary and caucus goers. Among young Republican and Independents indicating they are at least somewhat likely (definitely, probably or 50-50) to vote in their state's primary or caucus (n=637), Mitt Romney leads the field with 23 percent, followed by Ron Paul (16%), Herman Cain (15%) and Newt Gingrich (13%). Examination and allocation of Cain supporters' second-choice selections for President shows Romney would continue to lead (25%) among Millennials with Cain out of the race, with Ron Paul (18%) and Newt Gingrich (17%) in a statistical tie for second place (Herman Cain suspended his campaign on Dec. 3, the final day of the interviewing period for the IOP's fall poll). -- Job approval ratings continue to slide for President Obama as well as Democrats and Republicans in Congress. President Obama's job performance rating among America's 18-29 year-olds is currently at the lowest point since IOP polling of the Obama administration began in the fall of 2009. Forty-six percent (46%) of Millennials approve of the job Obama is doing as president - a decrease of nine percentage points from Feb. 2011 IOP polling (55%) - with 51% saying they disapprove. Obama's job approval has also fallen among college students from 60% in February to 48% today. Views toward Democrats (33% approval; down from 45% in February) and Republicans in Congress (24% approval; down from 30% in February) have also slipped significantly over the same period. -- In 2012 preview, Barack Obama holds moderate lead over "generic" Republican, but ahead of potential Republican challengers by double digits. With the general election under one year away, Barack Obama leads a proposed match-up against "the Republican Party's candidate for President" by six percentage points (35%-29%), a smaller margin than found in February IOP polling (twelve percentage points; Obama: 38%-Republican: 26%). On college campuses, the match-up is a statistical dead-heat (Obama: 37%-Republican: 34%). When Obama is matched against specific candidates, he leads Mitt Romney by eleven percentage points (37%-26%) and Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry (39%-23%) by sixteen percentage points.