Politics |
December 15, 2011

A new national poll conducted by Harvard’s Institute of Politics (Kennedy School of Government)  among America’s 18- to 29- year olds   finds more Millennials predict President Barack Obama will lose his bid for re-election.

The result was 36% (negative) as against 30% (positive) votes.

The new survey also shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with the best performance among potential Republican challengers in a general election match-up against President Obama, trailing the President by eleven percentage points (Obama: 37%, Romney: 26%).

“Our new polling data clearly shows Millennials are growing more concerned over the direction of the country and effectiveness of Washington, D.C. to solve problems.” -Trey Grayson Director Harvard Institute of Politics

“While we are more than a year away – it’s important to note that with enthusiasm about politics and Washington down, nearly three-quarters of Millennials seriously concerned about jobs and the economy – and more believing that the President that they helped elect will lose, rather than win re-election – this survey may well serve as an ominous sign for Barack Obama’s 2012 chances and the political engagement of America’s largest generation.” – John Della Volpe Polling Director Harvard Institute of Politics

The web-enabled survey of 2,028 18-29 year-old U.S. citizens with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points (95% confidence level) conducted with research partner Knowledge Networks for the IOP between Nov. 23 and Dec. 3, 2011 finds –

    --  Plurality of Millennials predict Obama will lose bid for re-election.
        Among all 18-29 year-olds, more believe that Barack Obama will lose
        re-election (36%) than win (30%), with almost a third (32%) not sure -
        the margin is nearly identical among students enrolled in four-year
        colleges (37%: lose, 31%: win, 31%: not sure).  Among survey respondents
        who voted for Barack Obama in 2008, less than half (48%) believe he will
        win re-election at this time (19% say Obama will lose, with 33%
        undecided).
    --  Mitt Romney leads among young Republican primary and caucus goers.
        Among young Republican and Independents indicating they are at least
        somewhat likely (definitely, probably or 50-50) to vote in their state's
        primary or caucus (n=637), Mitt Romney leads the field with 23 percent,
        followed by Ron Paul (16%), Herman Cain (15%) and Newt Gingrich (13%).
        Examination and allocation of Cain supporters' second-choice selections
        for President shows Romney would continue to lead (25%) among
        Millennials with Cain out of the race, with Ron Paul (18%) and Newt
        Gingrich (17%) in a statistical tie for second place (Herman Cain
        suspended his campaign on Dec. 3, the final day of the interviewing
        period for the IOP's fall poll).
        --  Job approval ratings continue to slide for President Obama as well as
        Democrats and Republicans in Congress. President Obama's job performance
        rating among America's 18-29 year-olds is currently at the lowest point
        since IOP polling of the Obama administration began in the fall of 2009.
        Forty-six percent (46%) of Millennials approve of the job Obama is doing
        as president - a decrease of nine percentage points from Feb. 2011 IOP
        polling (55%) - with 51% saying they disapprove.  Obama's job approval
        has also fallen among college students from 60% in February to 48%
        today.  Views toward Democrats (33% approval; down from 45% in February)
        and Republicans in Congress (24% approval; down from 30% in February)
        have also slipped significantly over the same period.
    --  In 2012 preview, Barack Obama holds moderate lead over "generic"
        Republican, but ahead of potential Republican challengers by double
        digits.  With the general election under one year away, Barack Obama
        leads a proposed match-up against "the Republican Party's candidate for
        President" by six percentage points (35%-29%), a smaller margin than
        found in February IOP polling (twelve percentage points; Obama:
        38%-Republican: 26%).  On college campuses, the match-up is a
        statistical dead-heat (Obama: 37%-Republican: 34%).  When Obama is
        matched against specific candidates, he leads Mitt Romney by eleven
        percentage points (37%-26%) and Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry (39%-23%)
        by sixteen percentage points.


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